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Sunday, November 2, 2008


Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight details a number of scenarios - the above being the "most likely" - that would give John McCain his own "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment on Tuesday:

...this would be a boring ol' map. Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won. McCain wins everything else. Problem for McCain: this becomes a losing map if he loses Colorado, and -- although I think Sean's maybe a little too quick to call the state for the blue team -- Obama's lead in early voting there will make things tough for McCain.

He also gives the winning scenarios for Obama:
The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Representatives.)

Yes, I said that it's over. But it's over in the way that the Celtics had their game against the Pacers last night in the bag. Feel me?

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