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Sunday, November 2, 2008

NBC's Chucky T calls it for Obama:
Our final map: With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama.

Pew Poll also predicts an Obama win:
A new national poll is going beyond saying Obama is ahead: It's predicting that Obama will win by six points.

The final Pew poll predicts that the outcome will be Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with the remainder split among third-party candidates. The top-line result among likely voters right now is Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a much wider lead of 53%-38%.

In an interview, Pew's director of survey research Scott Keeter explained to us how they arrived at that 52%-46% predicted outcome. Pew performed a statistical analysis looking at the remaining undecideds on the basis of their demographics and their answers to issue questions, in order to project how they'll vote -- if they'll vote at all, that is.

"This is an unusual group of people, anybody who could get to this point in the campaign and not have made a decision," Keeter said. "So you have to think some of these people are not even going to vote."



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